Tech
Nebius cuts 2026 outlook as AI cloud capacity slips
Nebius expects 2026 revenue at the low end of 3,0 to 3,4 billion US dollars after partner data centres slipped into 2027, while Q3 revenue rose 571 % to 980,8 million.
Key takeaways
- Nebius grew third-quarter revenue by 571 % to 980,8 million US dollars, above analyst expectations.
- The company now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of 3,0 to 3,4 billion US dollars because partner capacity slips into 2027.
- Capital expenditure is set to reach about 27 billion US dollars in 2026 and 40 to 45 billion in 2027.
- Owned sites in Finland, including Lappeenranta, are due to deliver first capacity in 2027.
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Nebius, the AI cloud company based in Amsterdam, now expects its 2026 revenue at the low end of its range of 3,0 to 3,4 billion US dollars, because some data centre capacity rented from third parties will only come online in the first half of 2027.
The company announced this on 12.11.2026 together with its third-quarter results, and its shares fell by around 16 % during the day, according to Reuters and CNBC.
What did Nebius report for the third quarter of 2026?
Revenue for the three months to 30.09.2026 rose 571 % year on year to 980,8 million US dollars, the company said in its results release. Analysts had expected 907,5 million US dollars, according to the LSEG consensus quoted by CNBC. Adjusted EBITDA reached 465,8 million US dollars, against a loss of 5,2 million a year earlier. Under US accounting rules, Nebius still posted a net loss from continuing operations of 37,5 million US dollars, down from 119,6 million.
The bigger figure is spending. Purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets came to 7,3 billion US dollars in the quarter alone and to 15,4 billion over the first nine months of the year.
On the customer side, the letter to shareholders names Databricks, Datadog, Snowflake and Palantir as new enterprise partners. It also lists two European AI start-ups among its users: Distil Labs from Berlin and Cursive from London.
Why is Nebius lowering its 2026 forecast?
In the letter, founder and CEO Arkady Volozh writes that the sites Nebius builds itself are on time or ahead of schedule, while there have been delays where the company relies on third parties. He names New Jersey, where Nebius is moving the power supply to fuel cells from Bloom Energy. The remaining tranches contracted with Microsoft at that site are now scheduled for the second quarter of 2027. According to Nebius, the contracts behind the delayed capacity remain in place.
"Delays are part of our industry right now. We are not immune", Volozh told Reuters, adding that none of the capacity had been cancelled.
The updated guidance in brief:
- 2026 revenue at the low end of 3,0 to 3,4 billion US dollars, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40 %.
- 2026 capital expenditure of about 27 billion US dollars, above the previous range of 20 to 25 billion.
- For 2027, revenue of 12 to 13 billion US dollars, capital expenditure of 40 to 45 billion and a pre-tax break-even in the fourth quarter of 2027.
Nebius expects customer prepayments and asset-backed financing against contracts with investment-grade customers to cover 75 to 85 % of its 2027 capital expenditure. Reuters names Microsoft and Meta among the hyperscalers behind those contracts.
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How did the market react to the Nebius results?
Reuters reported a fall of 16 % on 12.11.2026 and linked it to a broader slump in AI stocks, to financing concerns around so-called neoclouds such as CoreWeave, to the outcome of the US midterm elections and to Jensen Huang's departure as Nvidia chief executive. According to CNBC, Nvidia held shares in Nebius worth about 329 million US dollars at the end of June, based on a filing. Our report on the change at the top of Nvidia covers that story separately.
What does this mean for Europe and Luxembourg?
Nebius is headquartered in Amsterdam and builds a large part of its capacity in Europe. For Europe, the map of sites in its shareholder letter shows locations in Finland, France, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Estonia and Spain. In March 2026 the company announced an AI factory of up to 310 MW in Lappeenranta, Finland, and said it was building a 240 MW site near Lille in France. Lappeenranta and a second site in Mäntsälä are among the owned sites that Nebius expects to start delivering capacity in 2027.
For companies in Luxembourg that rent computing power for AI rather than buying their own hardware, two points stand out. The delays Nebius describes concern sites run by partners, notably in the United States, while the company says its own sites, including those in Finland, are on track. And the figures show how much capital private AI infrastructure now absorbs, which puts the public effort into perspective: MeluXina-AI, the Luxembourg AI Factory with 1.008 NVIDIA GPUs, is due to open to users from 2027.
What comes next for Nebius?
Nebius is growing very fast, but its timetable depends on power supply and partners. Its own sites in Finland will show from 2027 whether the plan holds. Until then, the company relies mainly on customer prepayments and asset-backed financing to pay for the build-out.
Questions and answers
Why did Nebius shares fall on 12.11.2026?
Where does Nebius build data centres in Europe?
Sources
- [1] Nebius reports third quarter 2026 financial results accessed 2026-11-12
- [2] Nebius Group Letter to shareholders Q3 2026 accessed 2026-11-12
- [3] Nebius to construct 310 MW AI factory in Finland accessed 2026-11-12
- [4] Nebius pares back 2026 revenue forecast on capacity delays, shares slump (Reuters) accessed 2026-11-12
- [5] Nebius falls 16% as company expects increased 2026 capex spend, issues weak outlook (CNBC) accessed 2026-11-12
- [6] MeluXina-AI: inside Luxembourg's AI supercomputer (Thinking.lu) accessed 2026-11-12
- [7] Nebius media kit accessed 2026-11-12
